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Changes in vegetation in North America indicate Holocene shifts in the latitudinal temperature gradient along the western margin of the North Atlantic. Tree taxa such as oak (Quercus) and birch (Betula) experienced opposing directions of change across different latitudes consistent with changes in temperature gradient steepness. Pollen‐inferred temperatures from 34 sites quantify the gradient changes and reconstruct a long‐term northward steepening in summer and southward steepening in winter. From 4.8 to 3.8 ka, an oscillation in tree distributions interrupted the long‐term trends as a steep temperature gradient developed north of 43.5°N. The shift likely limited cold outbreaks to the south, producing anomalously high summer temperatures at 42–43.5°N, and enabling a northward expansion of oak forests. The forest and temperature gradient changes appear consistent with orbital and ice sheet forcing as well as millennial variability in the North Atlantic pressure field analogous to the North Atlantic Oscillation on interannual time scales.

 

Forest insects and pathogens have significant impacts on U.S. forests, annually affecting an area nearly three times that of wildfires and timber harvesting combined. However, coupled with these direct effects of forest insects and pathogens are the indirect impacts through influencing forest management practices, such as harvesting. In an earlier study, we surveyed private woodland owners in the northeastern U.S. and 84% of respondents indicated they intended to harvest in at least one of the presented insect invasion scenarios. This harvest response to insects represents a potentially significant shift in the timing, extent, and species selection of harvesting. Here we used the results from the landowner survey, regional forest inventory data, and characteristics of the emerald ash borer (Species: Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888) invasion to examine the potential for a rapidly spreading invasive insect to alter harvest regimes and affect regional forest conditions. Our analysis suggests that 25% of the woodland parcels in the Connecticut River Watershed in New England may intend to harvest in response to emerald ash borer. If the emerald ash borer continues to spread at its current rate within the region, and therefore the associated management response occurs in the next decade, this could result in an increase in harvest frequencies, from 2.6% year−1 (historically) to 3.7% year−1 through to approximately 2030. If harvest intensities remain at levels found in remeasured Forest Inventory and Analysis plots, this insect-initiated harvesting would result in the removal of 12%–13% of the total aboveground biomass. Eighty-one percent of the removed biomass would be from species other than ash, creating a forest disturbance that is over twice the magnitude than that created by emerald ash borer alone, with the most valuable co-occurring species most vulnerable to biomass loss. 

Climate variations in the North Atlantic region can substantially impact surrounding continents. Notably, the Younger Dryas chronozone was named for the ecosystem effects of abrupt changes in the region at circa (ca.) 12.9–11.7 ka (millennia before 1950 AD). Holocene variations since then, however, have been hard to diagnose, and the responsiveness of terrestrial ecosystems continues to be debated. Here, we show that Holocene climate variations had spatial patterns consistent with changes in Atlantic overturning and repeatedly steepened the temperature gradient between Nova Scotia and Greenland since >8 ka. The multicentury changes correlated with hydrologic and vegetation changes in the northeast United States, including when an enhanced temperature gradient coincided with subregional droughts indicated by water-level changes at multiple coastal lakes at 4.9–4.6, 4.2–3.9, 2.8–2.1, and 1.3–1.2 ka. We assessed the variability and its effects by replicating signals across sites, using converging evidence from multiple methods, and applying forward models of the systems involved. We evaluated forest responses in the northeast United States and found that they tracked the regional climate shifts including the smallest magnitude (∼5% or 50 mm) changes in effective precipitation. Although a long-term increase in effective precipitation of >45% (>400 mm) could have prevented ecological communities from equilibrating to the continuously changing conditions, our comparisons confirm stable vegetation–climate relationships and support the use of fossil pollen records for quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction. Overall, the network of records indicates that centennial climate variability has repeatedly affected the North Atlantic region with predictable consequences.

 

Ecosystems across the United States are changing in complex and unpredictable ways and analysis of these changes requires coordinated, long‐term research. This paper is a product of a synthesis effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation funded Long‐Term Ecological Research (LTER) network addressing the LTER core research area of “populations and communities.” This analysis revealed that each LTER site had at least one compelling “story” about what their site would look like in 50–100 yr. As the stories were prepared, themes emerged, and the stories were group into papers along five themes: state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects. This paper addresses the cascading effects theme and includes stories from the Bonanza Creek (boreal), Kellogg Biological Station (agricultural and freshwater), Palmer (Antarctica), and Harvard Forest (temperate forest) LTER sites. We define cascading effects very broadly to include a wide array of unforeseen chains of events that result from a variety of actions or changes in a system. While climate change is having important direct effects on boreal forests, indirect effects mediated by fire activity—severity, size, and return interval—have large cascading effects over the long term. In northeastern temperate forests, legacies of human management and disturbance affect the composition of current forests, which creates a cascade of effects that interact with the climate‐facilitated invasion of an exotic pest. In Antarctica, declining sea ice creates a cascade of effects including declines in Adèlie and increases in Gentoo penguins, changes in phytoplankton, and consequent changes in zooplankton populations. An invasion of an exotic species of lady beetle is likely to have important future effects on pest control and conservation of native species in agricultural landscapes. New studies of zebra mussels, a well‐studied invader, have established links between climate, the heat tolerance of the mussels, and harmful algal blooms. Collectively, these stories highlight the need for long‐term studies to sort out the complexities of different types of ecological cascades. The diversity of sites within the LTER network facilitates the emergence of overarching concepts about trophic interactions as an important driver of ecosystem structure, function, services, and futures.

 

We analysed a dataset composed of multiple palaeoclimate and lake‐sediment pollen records from New England to explore how postglacial changes in the composition and spatial patterns of vegetation were controlled by regional‐scale climate change, a subregional environmental gradient, and landscape‐scale variations in soil characteristics.

The 120,000‐km²study area includes parts of Vermont and New Hampshire in the north, where sites are 150–200 km from the Atlantic Ocean, and spans the coastline from southeastern New York to Cape Cod and the adjacent islands, including Block Island, the Elizabeth Islands, Nantucket, and Martha's Vineyard.

We analysed pollen records from 29 study sites, using multivariate cluster analysis to visualize changes in the composition and spatial patterns of vegetation during the last 14,000 years. The pollen data were compared with temperature and precipitation reconstructions.

Boreal forest featuringPiceaandPinus banksianawas present across the region when conditions were cool and dry 14,000–12,000 calibrated¹⁴C years before present (ybp).Pinus strobusbecame regionally dominant as temperatures increased between 12,000 and 10,000 ybp. The composition of forests in inland and coastal areas diverged in response to further warming after 10,000 ybp, whenQuercusandPinus rigidaexpanded across southern New England, whereas conditions remained cool enough in inland areas to maintainPinus strobus. Increasing precipitation allowedTsuga canadensis,Fagus grandifolia, andBetulato replacePinus strobusin inland areas during 9,000–8,000 ybp, and also led to the expansion ofCaryaacross the coastal part of the region beginning at 7,000–6,000 ybp. Abrupt cooling at 5,500–5,000 ybp caused sharp declines inTsugain inland areas andQuercusat some coastal sites, and the populations of those taxa remained low until they recovered around 3,000 ybp in response to rising precipitation. Throughout most of the Holocene, sites underlain by sandy glacial deposits were occupied byPinus rigidaandQuercus.

Postglacial changes in the composition and spatial pattern of New England forests were controlled by long‐term trends and abrupt shifts in temperature and precipitation, as well as by the environmental gradient between coastal and inland parts of the region. Substrate and soil moisture shaped landscape‐scale variations in forest composition.